PreSalt.com

The need to establish a state enterprise, the Petro-Sal, to oversee the consortium of oil exploration in the pre-salt is one of the main questions raised by four Senate's legislative consultants, two lawyers and two economists, in the the study of Assessment of the Proposed Regulatory Framework of Pre-Salt.

This is one of the opinions, made available to the Senate and the House for technical discussions on the four bills sent by the government to Congress. The text is not an official document of the Legislative Advisory of the Senate.

In the study, the experts point out that one of the most important tasks of the Petro-Sal, which is foreseen in one of the bills, and conduct in the Senate, "is whether the companies in the exploration consortium operating, Petrobras (Bovespa: PETR3/PETR4, NYSE: PBR / PBRA, Latibex: XPBR / XPBRA, BCBA: APBR / APBRA) , including,  not is overpriced operating costs to reduce the share of oil that is delivered to the government."

They point out the possibility that the new state company to become "politically subdivided", which would remove the ability to act of Petro-salt, with a view to the loss of technical staff. The consultants also claim that another risk is the state company "to become captured by the interests of Petrobras, as this will have its powers extended to the new model proposed by the government and have a staff able to act in the direction and operation of "Petro-Sal".

"As Petrobras will be the operator and a member of any consortium, it will have every incentive to withhold information on "Petro-Sal Company", in order to increase profit and reduce transfers to the government," said the technicians of the Legislative Advisory.

Another allocation of "Petro-salt" would control the pace of production. On this point, the consultants warn of the possibility of "Petro-salt", because to hold the decision power in the operating committees of the consortia, it can control the pace of production is reduced or accelerated, according to how the price oil.

"It also may interfere with the policy of selling [export or domestic sales], storage and price collusion with other producers," say the experts in the study, available for viewing at Senate page on the Internet.

In the study, the consultants cite an excerpt from an interview given last year by the chief minister, Dilma Rousseff, to Valor Economico Newspaper. In the interview, she says that the sharing scheme opens the possibility of access "to the bulk of oil revenue and thereby can control the pace of production, using it to a policy of international alliances, considering the oil geopolitical role."

In this sense, they consider that "this possible benefit" is limited, when considering the high cost of installation of pre-salt. "One thing is to say that Saudi Arabia will plug a hole in the ground and stop producing oil. Another thing is to say that the billionaire investment made for exploration and transportation of oil from pre-salt will be stopped, hoping the price goes up or something. The cost of idle equipment will be too high to enable the manipulation of the rate of production, "say the experts.

For advisors, the efficiency of production control is debatable. According to them, this mechanism could have two goals: to manipulate the price of oil or streamline the flow of production in order to adapt it to the price cycle.

The manipulation of international prices, in the case of Brazil come to become, in fact, a major producer, technicians say that in the long run, this may become ineffective, since the price increase would make it possible to produce in other areas or the use of other energy sources.

"But in the short term, in fact, the country can earn profit through production cuts. It is worth remembering that production cuts may be achieved through different instruments of direct control, such as taxation or imposition of export quotas, "recognize the consultants in the study.